| | | | | This is a special midterms-focused edition of The Point newsletter, which will publish every Saturday until Election Day. Let us know what you like or don't like about it at cillizza@cnn.com and dezenski@cnn.com. (Don't want a Saturday edition? That's fine! Opt out here, and we'll see you back here for your regularly scheduled Point newsletter on Monday night.) Thanks for reading! | | | 🔥 Fired up and ready to vote? 🔥 | | | Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation did … something. We won't really know how much Kavanugh's confirmation is energizing (or deflating) voters' interest until exit polling on Election Day -- BUT polls this week show there are pockets of electoral enthusiasm around Kavanaugh. But the picture becomes more nuanced in the battleground states -- and districts -- themselves. Nationally, Kavanaugh's confirmation is not popular: 51% of voters oppose Kavanaugh's confirmation to the high court -- a spike from the 39% who opposed it in September, according to new polling from CNN and SPSS. Meanwhile, 41% of Republicans polled back his confirmation (up a smidge from 38% in September).
If anything, polling indicates that the Kavanaugh confirmation is motivating voters within their existing partisan beliefs -- and especially among likely midterm voters who would have turned out anyway.
There's little surprise that support over the confirmation breaks down along partisan lines. And polling shows that partisanship firming up post-confirmation as well.
Now, 91% of Democrats say they opposed Kavanaugh's nomination -- a spike from the 63% in early September. And among Republicans, 89% now support his nomination compared to the who 74% backed him in September.
Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund (the largest House GOP super PAC) told members that the Kavanaugh confirmation created an "improvement in the political environment" despite the fact that House Republicans "still face historic headwinds," according to a memo from the CLF's executive director. The Point: Kavanaugh's confirmation has apparently fired up partisans -- but is the fire burning in Democratic and Republican bellies enough to move the needle?
-- Lauren | | Hey there! I'm Lauren Dezenski, new co-author of The Point, plus the author behind this Saturday newsletter dedicated to the midterms. This week I caught up with Chris to talk the Big Three in the news (so to speak): Kavanaugh, Michael and Kanye.
Lauren Dezenski: So, Kavanaugh is on the court. Republicans say it's going to activate their base come November, Democrats say it's energizing theirs. Is the Kavanaugh confirmation boost exclusive to one party?
Chris Cillizza: Well, there's no question that Republicans got a bit of a boost in the base from the Kavanaugh hearings. Lindsey Graham's angry rant about how Kavanaugh was being mistreated was sort of the galvanizing moment for Republicans during the hearing; Graham's anger combined with Kavanaugh's own outrage got Republicans fired up.
At the same time, it also got Democrats – and women who aren't necessarily Democrats – very fired up too, particularly the way that Senate Republicans (and President Trump) handled the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh by Christine Blasey Ford. I was struck by this number in a new Washington Post poll: 40% of women said the Kavanaugh hearings made them more likely to support a Democratic candidate in November, while just 26% said it made them more likely to support a Republican. If that margin holds, women will hand Democrats back the House majority.
The big question, I think, is whether Republicans can sustain the momentum in their base from the hearings.The new CNN poll suggests they are far behind on the generic ballot even post-Kavanaugh and history suggests the party out of the White House almost always fares better in the midterms.
LD: Hurricane Michael smashed into the Florida panhandle this week, decimating coastal towns and impacting millions of lives. Whether it's in early voting numbers, concerns over its handling, or anything else, you see the storm affecting the election?
CC: I think the hurricane will absolutely have an impact on the various Florida races – especially for governor and Senate. What usually happens in moments like these -- in the immediate aftermath of natural disasters -- is that the race(s) freeze in place. People aren't thinking about politics, so until they start again, nothing moves. That's probably marginally good news for Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson, the Democratic nominees for governor and Senate, who appeared to have a slight bit of momentum in what are two very close races.
One other factor to think about: Florida Gov. Rick Scott is running against Nelson. Because he's the current governor, he's been all over the TV in the state and nationally talking about all Florida is doing to deal with the effects from Michael. Traditionally that sort of exposure -- particularly when a politician looks competent and on top of things – helps him at the margins.
LD: Kanye 2024?
CC: I mean, I stopped rolling my eyes and ruling things out the day Trump won. BUT man, it seems very unlikely that either party would take such a massive risk. And that's what even considering nominating Kanye would be: A massive risk. | | PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF ELECTION RETURNS | | We can't predict the future, but we can forecast it.
And all signs point to a hung legislature next year, with Democrats likely to capture control of the House and Republicans holding onto their majority in the Senate this November, according to the new data analysis prediction tool The Forecast from CNN's Harry Enten.
Harry forecasts a net gain of 30 Democratic seats in the House (more than the necessary net 23 needed to take the majority) while Republicans could pick up one Senate seat. Democrats need a net gain of two seats to retake the Senate. | | $38.1 million. It's eye-popping. Astounding. A whole lot of cash.
But is that enough to actually win?
Beto O'Rouke, the singing, skateboarding Democrat trying to oust GOP Sen. Ted Cruz this fall has shattered fundraising records -- and ensured the Texas Senate race is the nation's most expensive. Beto's Q3 haul triples his Q1 fundraising and dwarfs Cruz's still-sizable $12 million raised during the last quarter.
Money isn't the only thing that matters in an election (by ANY means) but donations can be a telling sign of enthusiasm, especially if that cash is flowing in at small increments (think $100 or less) and coming from within the district.
O'Rourke's campaign says most of 802,836 individual donations came from Texas.
Meanwhile, polling this week shows Cruz ahead of O'Rouke by eight points. | | -- Former Vice President Joe Biden is not running for president "AT THIS POINT" (emphasis Lauren's). More on this presidential tap dance from Chris.
-- UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is leaving the administration, will campaign for Trump in 2020 and is definitely not running for president
-- Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is ... now a registered Democrat (and last week sunk $20 million in Democratic efforts to retake the Senate) | | WHEN BAD BLOOD TURNS INTO GOOD ADVERTISING | |  | Taylor Swift | | What do you do when Taylor Swift endorses you on Instagram to her hundreds of millions of followers?
You cut an ad, obvi.
Phil Bredesen's "Taylor Swift" borrows the songstress' music, lyrics and news coverage around Swift's endorsement of his Democratic Senate candidacy.
An early October poll shows Bredesen's opponent Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn with an 8-point lead. Not polled: The 25% decrease in President Trump's affinity for Swift's music. | | | 📍President Donald Trump to Kentucky and Montana 📍Joe Biden, Corey Booker, Kamala Harris, Michael Avenatti, Steve Buttigieg and Steve Bullock to South Carolina 📍Alec Baldwin and John Delaney to New Hampshire 📍Bernie Sanders to Michigan and Colorado and also South Carolina | | | | | | |
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