| By Julia Horowitz • Friday, September 27 | | | | Happy Friday! 🎉 In today's newsletter: IPO doldrums set in, markets predict Trump's impeachment and FTSE Russell holds out on China.
US stock futures are higher after markets finished Thursday slightly lower. Markets in Europe rose in early trading, while stocks in Asia were mixed.
▸ Forwarded this newsletter? Want global markets news and analysis from CNN Business reporters every morning? You can sign up here. | | | What's happening now in markets: MARKET DATA AS OF 6:45 AM ET | | MARKET FLASH The IPO doldrums are setting in | |
It's all but official: Unprofitable companies are struggling to win over investors on Wall Street.
Despite high hopes, Peloton failed to impress as its shares began trading Thursday on the Nasdaq. Stock in the indoor cycling startup finished the day 11% below its $29 IPO price.
From my CNN Business colleague Sara O'Brien in New York: "The lackluster debut calls to mind Uber, which also fell in its first day of trading as investors scrutinized its history of steep losses."
The context: While Peloton saw a big jump in revenue in its most recent fiscal year, losses more than doubled, jumping to almost $196 million from about $48 million.
Peloton is the latest in a string of disappointing IPOs this year. Uber and Lyft haven't lived up to the hype. It's not clear that WeWork will press ahead with its IPO at all, though the ouster of CEO Adam Neumann was ostensibly meant to rescue those efforts.
In this environment, companies are thinking twice about moving ahead with public offerings. Entertainment company Endeavor said Thursday that it will postpone its IPO. The company, which owns the mixed martial arts league UFC and talent agency William Morris Endeavor, had hoped to raise $100 million.
Setting the scene: A report from consultancy EY released this week observed weakness in the IPO market this quarter as issuers hold out for better conditions.
According to the firm, 256 IPOs came to market in the third quarter of 2019, raising $40.2 billion. That's a decline of 24% by volume and 22% by proceeds compared to the same quarter last year.
Even so, optimism remains — and not everyone is calling it quits. Anheuser-Busch InBev is expected to list its Asia business in Hong Kong on Monday, though it had to scale back the offering. And Paul Go, EY's global IPO head, predicts that the environment will improve heading into next year.
"As we enter into the traditional peak IPO season, we expect global IPO activity to pick up in the last quarter and into 2020 when there is more clarity to US-China trade tensions and developments around Brexit," Go said. | | VOICES On WeWork and market distortion "Money-losing companies claim that their business models will work somehow, someday ... But traditional capitalism operates under a key disciplining force: profits."
NICOLE GELINAS, AUTHOR OF "AFTER THE FALL: SAVING CAPITALISM FROM WALL STREET — AND WASHINGTON"
Read her full argument on CNN Business. | | DATA POINT Markets predict Trump will be impeached, but not removed | |
Traders are betting that President Donald Trump will become the third president in American history to be impeached.
The odds of Trump's impeachment during his first term by the US House of Representatives spiked above 60% earlier this week on prediction market PredictIt, my CNN Business colleague Matt Egan in New York writes. That's up from just 24% before reports surfaced on September 18 about a whistleblower complaint against the president.
However: Traders on the platform currently see only an 18% chance that the president will be removed from office by the Republican-controlled Senate.
More on prediction markets from Matt: "Investors use prediction markets to get a real-time barometer on the likelihood of certain political events — everything from Brexit and the 2020 election to impeachment. Unlike polls, which operate with a lag, the prediction markets respond instantly as developments unfold."
On PredictIt, traders can buy shares for or against an event taking place. Those shares can then be traded, ideally by selling them for a higher price once an outcome looks more certain.
Remember: Just because traders have raised the odds for impeachment doesn't mean they're particularly nervous.
Trump has warned that markets "would crash" if he were impeached. But for now, investors appear unfazed, betting that the impeachment fight taking place in Washington will remain a political sideshow that won't have a significant impact on economic growth or corporate earnings. | | UP NEXT
A slew of US economic data arrives as we close out the week.
▸ August PCE inflation data, durable goods data and personal income and spending details will post at 8:30 a.m. ET.
▸ The final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September hits at 10 a.m. ET.
Coming next week: The big data release will be the September US jobs report.
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WHAT WE'RE READING AND WATCHING
▸ A top banker's defection from Credit Suisse roils Swiss banking (CNN Business)
▸ Toyota plans to raise its Subaru stake to more than 20% (Reuters)
▸ Telsa's new software update comes with Netflix (CNN Business)
▸ WeWork looks to trim staff close to ex-CEO Adam Neumann (WSJ)
▸ Door Dash suffered a data breach that hit 4.9 million people (CNN Business)
▸ The US economy grew at a modest 2% rate last quarter (AP)
▸ SoftBank's lofty tech ambitions are now in doubt (CNN Business) | | | OKAY, SO... China still can't make FTSE Russell's big bond index
Market reforms in China have improved access for foreign investors. But the country needs to go further if it wants to be included on FTSE Russell's marquee World Government Bond Index.
The index provider said in its annual review Thursday that China will remain on its watch list after clients expressed lingering concerns about market liquidity, foreign exchange and the settlement of transactions.
That runs counter to recent decisions from major players such as Bloomberg and JPMorgan. The latter said earlier this month that Chinese government debt would be added to major indices starting in February 2020.
At issue here: all the money that's at stake. JPMorgan estimates that China's inclusion on the biggest fixed income benchmarks, including the FTSE World Government Bond Index, could generate approximately $250 to $300 billion in flows. That's nothing to scoff at.
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