| | | | Fareed: Trump's Behavior Is Part of a Global Trend | | Whether or not President Donald Trump's dealings with Ukraine warrant impeachment, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column, his actions were wrong—and, sadly, not uncommon in the present era.
"Trump is a particularly egregious example, but his misbehavior fits a global trend," Fareed writes. Leaders from Britain's Boris Johnson to India's Narendra Modi to the Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte have all violated democratic norms. Political parties typically check this behavior, Fareed writes, but that's not happening in the US. "American democracy today desperately needs the GOP to uphold democracy rather than feast on its destruction," Fareed concludes. | | Trump, Ukraine, and America's Polarized Foreign Policy | | Thanks to President Trump's treatment, Ian Bateson and Tom McTague write for The Atlantic, Ukraine risks becoming a partisan issue in the US—at a moment when it can't afford to lose America's diplomatic and military backing. It's a sign of the times, they write: US foreign policy has typically featured bipartisan consensus over relations with foreign governments, but that's changed in the Trump era. Israel has grown more aligned with Trump's Republican Party, and Brexit has driven a similar partisan wedge in US approaches to Britain, for instance.
In the same magazine, Loren DeJonge Schulman writes that Trump's overall approach to foreign policy probably led the whistle to be blown: Foreign policy professionals prize their traditions and professionalism, and Trump has "offended [their] sense of propriety," Schulman writes. As a result, Trump has alienated that class of civil servants and caused alarm among them. | | Will Russia Change the Middle East? | | In a new paper for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, Anna Borshchevskaya suggests it might. Beyond propping up its ally, Bashar al-Assad, Russia's involvement in Syria carries broader implications: Not only is Moscow eyeing Mediterranean ports, it has used Syria as a proving ground for its military and a foothold for regional alliances, she writes. Russia is "expanding its military relationship with Egypt and increasing its presence in Libya and inside the Persian Gulf," figures to align with Iran in the region, and has exported its mercenary presence to Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic, according to Borshchevskaya.
All of this boosts Moscow's regional influence, to the geostrategic detriment of Washington, she argues. One point to watch: If Russian weapons sales increase throughout the region (missiles are on their way to Turkey, for instance), it means Russia is gaining leverage with buyers. | | Heading Toward Conflict in Taiwan | | | Thanks largely to China's growing military prowess, conflict over Taiwan has become more likely, argues Brendan Taylor, author of the new International Institute for Strategic Studies book Dangerous Decade: Taiwan's Security and Crisis Management. In an interview published by the think tank, Taylor concludes that there is "literally no military balance now left to speak of between China and Taiwan" and that "barring an as yet unanticipated technological breakthrough, America will probably have lost the ability to defend Taiwan within the decade"—meaning it will only grow more tempting for Beijing to attempt to seize the island. | | ISIS's Tenuous Inroads in Southeast Asia | | | After the collapse of ISIS's territory in Iraq and Syria, the group is exploring new footholds in Southeast Asia, Zachary Abuza and Colin P. Clarke recently wrote in Foreign Affairs; results have been mixed, but the area could provide fertile ground, they conclude. In an episode of the World Politics Review's "Trend Lines" podcast this week, Abuza depicts a landscape of ISIS-affiliated groups that act independently in the region, with little central control from ISIS's leaders. (None of the region's ISIS offshoots poses an "existential" threat to any national government, he says.) And countries in the region are handling the threat differently: Contrasting Indonesia with the Philippines, for instance, Abuza praises the former for its creative approaches while criticizing the latter for fighting jihadis ham-handedly, with tactics like inaccurate artillery shelling, that can play into extremists' hands. | | | | | | |
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