| By Charles Riley • Wednesday, September 18 | | | | Good Wednesday morning. In today's newsletter: Investors turn their attention to the Fed, and a "plumbing problem" forces the US central bank to intervene in markets. Plus: FedEx takes a hit.
US stock futures point lower ahead of an interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve. Markets in Europe opened in positive territory, while stocks in Asia were mixed. Crude oil futures were down 1%.
▸ Forwarded this newsletter? Want global markets news and analysis from CNN Business reporters every morning? You can sign up here. | | | What's happening now in markets: MARKET DATA AS OF 05:30 AM ET | | MARKET FLASH A rate cut suddenly seems much less certain
Just about everyone predicted the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates on Wednesday. But the market is no longer sure.
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, which measures what the markets are predicting the Fed will do next, the probability of a quarter percentage point rate cut is only 56%, down from 92% just over a week ago.
Translation: Investors are split on whether the Fed will cut rates. An even more dramatic half percentage point cut, which was forecast by some this summer, is no longer even considered an option.
The context: This drastic change of heart comes after several turbulent days.
On Monday, oil prices skyrocketed after Saudi Arabian oil facilities were attacked, sparking worries about global oil supply. Higher oil prices can lead to inflation.
The United States and China also agreed to delay tariffs and return to the negotiating table, which removed some uncertainty.
On top of that, investors are keeping a close eye on economic data, and whether it is flashing a warning light for the economy. American consumer spending has so far outweighed a slow down in manufacturing.
Political concerns: President Donald Trump has put the central bank under immense pressure to cut rates. The latest salvo came Monday via social media.
"Will Fed ever get into the game? Dollar strongest EVER!" Trump said on Twitter. "Big Interest Rate Drop, Stimulus!" | | FED OPERATIONS A crack in the financial markets
The New York Federal Reserve is running a special operation aimed at reducing short-term interest rates and easing stress in financial markets.
On Tuesday morning, the NY Fed launched what's called an "overnight repo operation," during which the central bank attempts to ease pressure in markets by purchasing Treasuries and other securities.
More action: Phase two will take place before markets open on Wednesday, when the NY Fed will conduct a second operation aimed at repurchasing up to an additional $75 billion.
The goal is to pump money into the system to keep borrowing costs from creeping above the Fed's target range. The episode demonstrates evidence of emerging strains in financial markets and raises concern that the Fed could be losing its grip on short-term rates.
"The funding markets are clearly stressed," said Guy LeBas, managing director of fixed income strategy at Janney Capital Markets. "It's going to require Fed action."
Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale, described the situation as a "plumbing disaster."
"This is much more a plumbing problem caused by a sharp change in Treasury supply/demand dynamics than a symptom of fundamental threat to the system or the global economy," he said. "It will be interesting to see what Fed Chairman Jay Powell says about the mess." | | VOICES On the gender pay gap "It's time for an honest accounting of how money flows within corporate America. It's time to shift that balance toward the kind of equity that promotes a more diverse workplace and leadership — and improves the bottom line."
NATASHA LAMB AND JENNIFER KLEIN, WRITING FOR CNN BUSINESS
Read more on their ideas from CNN Business. | | MISSED DELIVERY FedEx profits slip after dropping Amazon as a customer
Losing Amazon as a customer is weighing on FedEx's bottom line.
The delivery company posted a slight revenue decline and a 12% drop in operating income for the three months ending August 31 after the closing bell on Tuesday.
Contributing to that decline were global trade disputes, increased costs related to an expansion of FedEx's delivery services and the "loss of business from a large customer," a likely reference to Amazon.
FedEx's stock dropped over 10% in premarket trading.
The conflict: Amazon used FedEx previously to deliver online orders to consumers. But Amazon has in recent years become a serious competitor to FedEx as it builds out its own distribution network.
In June, FedEx said it would not renew its contract with Amazon for air cargo services, saying it would focus instead on other e-commerce companies such as Walmart and Target. It later said it would also stop providing ground delivery services to Amazon. | | UP NEXT
The Fed decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Also today →
▸ US housing starts and building permits for August at 8:30 a.m. ET.
▸ US Energy Information Administration releases a report on crude inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Coming tomorrow: Interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
Coming Friday: Apple's iPhone 11 goes on sale in select countries.
| |
WHAT WE'RE READING AND WATCHING
▸ Facebook will soon announce first members of its oversight board (CNN Business)
▸ A $45 billion bet on Narendra Modi's India is rapidly unwinding (Bloomberg)
▸ A rare look inside Samsung's secretive ideas lab (CNN Business)
▸ UK orders security investigation into Cobham-Advent deal (Reuters)
▸ Who will be the next Bank of England governor (FT)
▸ After tight Israeli election, Netanyahu's tenure appears perilous (NYT)
▸ Streaming war spurs classic TV arms race (WSJ) | | | | | |
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