| By Julia Horowitz • Monday, September 9 | | | | Good Monday morning, everyone. In today's newsletter: Big Tech's antitrust reckoning, Saudi Arabia's oil shakeup and a "Volfefe Index" that tracks Trump's tweets.
US stock futures point higher after broadly finishing in the green on Friday. Markets in Europe opened mixed, while stocks in Asia mostly rose.
▸ Forwarded this newsletter? Want global markets news and analysis from CNN Business reporters every morning? You can sign up here. | | | What's happening now in markets: MARKET DATA AS OF 9/9/19 6:15 AM ET | | IN THE VALLEY Big Tech, meet the state attorneys general | |
The antitrust investigations into Big Tech are coming thick and fast, putting new pressure on companies that for years have enjoyed enormous and largely unfettered growth.
What's happening: Dozens of states led by Texas are expected to announce an antitrust investigation targeting Google and its advertising practices. State attorneys general will hold a press conference on Monday near the US Supreme Court building.
The announcement comes after Google parent Alphabet said last week that it had received a mandatory request for information from the US Justice Department concerning the company's previous antitrust probes. The disclosure was the first public acknowledgement by Google that it is directly involved in the federal agency's wide-ranging review of the biggest players in Silicon Valley, per my CNN Business colleague Brian Fung.
Separately, the attorneys general of eight states and the District of Columbia have launched an antitrust investigation into Facebook. It's expected to focus on the impact of the company's advertising practices, data and consumer privacy and its previous acquisitions, including Instagram and WhatsApp.
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Why it matters: Silicon Valley's most powerful companies face growing scrutiny at the state and federal level, well as in Europe. This could eat up resources in the short term and have a major impact down the line.
Investor insight: The press conference led by the Texas state attorney general is slotted for 2 p.m. ET. Watch Alphabet's stock around then. Facebook shares on Friday fell more than 3%. | | VOICES On the argument for buying stocks "You're not getting much yield, if any, or growth from bonds. So even conservative investors have to look more at high quality stocks."
KEVIN O'GRADY, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT MIRACLE MILE ADVISORS
Read more from CNN Business.
| | EYE ON EUROPE Investors are waiting on a UK election
Businesses and investors now expect a UK election. The big question is, when?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected on Monday to try again to trigger a snap election following a parliamentary revolt over Brexit last week. The goal: to strengthen his hand before the October 31 Brexit deadline. Otherwise, he could be forced to ask the European Union to delay Brexit again. Johnson has said he would "rather be dead in a ditch."
It doesn't look like the effort on Monday will succeed. Opposition parties have said they'll oppose an election in October as they try to force Johnson to request another delay. After a week of intense volatility, the pound and UK assets could enter a holding pattern.
"The opposition parties could drag this out for a bit long longer than the prime minister would like," UBS Wealth Management economist Dean Turner told me.
Despite lots of uncertainty, the consensus in the investment community is increasingly that Britain will not leave the EU on October 31, and the country will instead hold an election before the end of the year.
| | OIL MONITOR Saudi Arabia's big shakeup | |
The world's largest crude exporter has tapped a new oil minister, a move that could advance plans for an IPO of Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's giant state-owned oil company.
This weekend, the kingdom said it had replaced Khalid al-Falih with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Prince Abdulaziz is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's half brother and a longtime member of Saudi Arabia's delegation to OPEC. He's the first member of the royal family to serve as oil minister, breaking with tradition.
Al-Falih was removed as chairman of Aramco just last week.
Why you should care: "The leadership change is the latest in a string of developments to prepare Aramco to go public in what could be the world's biggest IPO," per my CNN Business colleagues Mark Thompson and John Defterios.
Al-Falih had "never been enthusiastic about an IPO for Aramco," a senior OPEC source told CNN Business last week.
Saudi Aramco's IPO planned for 2018 never materialized. But the announcements indicate that the kingdom is once again speedwalking toward a public listing, and there could be more news on the horizon.
Happening now: Prince Abdulaziz speaks Monday at the World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi. | | UP NEXT
State attorneys general make their antitrust announcement at 2 p.m. ET.
Also today →
▸ US consumer credit data for July posts at 3 p.m. ET.
Coming tomorrow: Apple's big iPhone 11 event will capture the attention of consumers and tech investors alike.
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WHAT WE'RE READING AND WATCHING
▸ WeWork could cut its valuation below $20 billion amid skepticism (WSJ)
▸ Nearly all British Airways flights canceled as pilots go on strike (CNN Business)
▸ China's August exports unexpectedly shrink as US shipments slow (Reuters)
▸ UK economy grows by more than expected in July (FT)
▸ Pizza Hut is making a comeback. Its NFL deal is one reason why (CNN Business)
▸ JPMorgan is close to winning a lead role in Aramco's record IPO (CNBC) | | | OKAY, SO... There is now a 'Volfefe Index' Here's a sign of the times: analysts at JPMorgan have created an index to track the impact of President Trump's tweets on US interest rates. Its name? The "Volfefe Index," an apparent mashup of volatility and a certain "covfefe" tweet that launched a social media frenzy back in 2017.
The analysts say the frequency of market-moving tweets from Trump "ballooned" in August, and that US rates markets are paying more attention. This drives the need for a model to spot market-moving tweets and track the results, they said.
"The subject of these tweets has increasingly turned toward market-moving topics, most prominently trade and monetary policy," the analysts said. "And we find strong evidence that tweets have increasingly moved US rates markets immediately after publication."
Perhaps unsurprisingly, trigger words for markets include "China," "billion" and "products." JPMorgan concedes that its model is "hardly a tweet savant" — but maintains that the results it produces are "firmly statistically significant." | | | | |
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