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Thursday, September 12, 2019

The Point: It's Joe Biden's big night


September 12, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski
Welcome to a special debate night edition of The Point!

Tune in to the third Democratic presidential debate tonight, beginning at 8 p.m. Eastern on ABC and Univision. Follow CNN's coverage on TV and CNN.com.

Joe Biden's big night

THE ONE TO WATCH: To describe Joe Biden's performances in the first two presidential debates as "OK" would be to give the former vice president the benefit of the doubt in a major way.

Biden was downright bad in the first debate in June and, while he was marginally better in the second debate in Detroit in late July, no one would say that the former vice president looked and acted like the frontrunner that all of the national polling in the 2020 race suggests he is.

The ex-veep has come across as halting and unsure of himself -- a strange thing, given that he is without question the candidate on the stage with the most experience in these sorts of high-profile and high-stakes debates.

Even if Biden hadn't struggled somewhat in the first two debates, he'd still be the center of attention tonight in Houston when the top 10 candidates in the Democratic field gather for the third debate of the 2020 race. That he has stumbled at times -- even while his poll numbers have remained remarkably steady -- means that the former vice president will be under massive scrutiny.

Which can be a good thing or a bad thing. Look solid and in command -- and avoid getting blindsided by attacks from his more liberal opponents -- and Biden could take a major step toward putting to rest the "is-he-really-up-to-this?" whispers. Struggle or repeat even the performance he gave in the second debate -- barely clearing what was then a decidedly low bar -- and those whispers start getting a lot louder.

The Point: Biden has been around the political block enough times to understand the stakes.  So, watch him. And see if he can step up when the lights shine the brightest.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Candidates should therefore avoid cursing or expletives in accordance with federal law."

-- ABC News Political Director Rick Klein, in a memo to the Democratic Party ahead of the third debate. One debater, Beto O'Rourke, has lately leaned into profanity.

THE WILD CARD

In one fell swoop, Andrew Yang managed to amp up expectations around his debate performance that no other candidate can replicate.

In a Wednesday tweet, Yang teased that he's planning "something no presidential candidate has ever done before in history" -- whatever that means. (Also, so many of you emailed in with your thoughts on what Yang would do tonight -- my favorites were the ones predicting more crowd surfing ...  my bet is on a sartorial first: a bow tie.) 

Yang has already shown a penchant for breaking outside of campaign norms. During his closing statement at the second debate, Yang broke the fourth wall and criticized the entire process, saying, "We're up here with makeup on our faces and our rehearsed attack lines, playing roles in this reality TV show."

Yang is clearly doing something right -- he beat out senators, governors and mayors to make this debate stage and he's ranked ninth in CNN's latest poll (putting him at 1% support).

Yang has proven that when he wants to, he can have a real impact on the debate stage. The second debate saw Yang deliver on the presence -- which helped him make it onto the stage tonight. But that's not a guarantee.

During the first debate, Yang's performance was less than impressive. He spoke the least of the 10 candidates on stage that night and was only asked two questions by moderators. The buzziest takeaway was the fact that Yang didn't wear a tie. 

The Point: Andrew Yang says he's going to do something big tonight. Will it be substantive or just splashy?

-- Lauren

GOOD VISUAL

For the record, search data is an indication of in-the-moment curiosity, not necessarily voter intent. Learn more!

Check out the full data visualization (and more) from Google Trends.

WHAT'S EVERYONE ELSE UP TO?

There are still another 10 Democrats running for president who aren't on the debate stage tonight. Here are their backup plans:

Tom Steyer holds a labor town hall in Iowa while his campaign hosts a debate watch party in New Hampshire.

Marianne Williamson hosts a live-stream from Los Angeles immediately following the debate. 

Michael Bennet campaigns in Iowa.

Tim Ryan participates in a forum on civil liberties from New Hampshire.

ONE BIG NUMBER

45%
 
That's the percentage of registered voters who say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting in next year's presidential election. That's significantly higher than in past election cycles. 
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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