| | | | Joe Biden's campaign is already making Iowa excuses |  | | Former Vice President Joe Biden is the frontrunner to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. Which is why his campaign's purposeful lowering of expectations on Tuesday won't work.
"Do we think we have to win Iowa? No," said one Biden campaign aide speaking to reporters. "Do we want to win Iowa? Yes, we do. We think we're going to win; we know it's going to be a dogfight. The same thing is true in New Hampshire."
Uh ... well, no.
Here's the thing: When you are the frontrunner, you are expected to win. Every where. Otherwise, you aren't the frontrunner anymore. That's how it works.
Remember back in 2008 when Rudy Giuliani, who polling suggested was the frontrunner for the nomination, based his entire campaign strategy on skipping Iowa in order to definitely win in New Hampshire? And how when New Hampshire started to go south on Giuliani, how Florida became the new New Hampshire for him? And how Giuliani never won a single primary or caucus and, relatedly, didn't get elected president?
Right. There is simply almost no evidence in modern political history of a frontrunner losing Iowa and New Hampshire and coming back to win the nomination.
That's not to say I don't get Biden's logic: His strength is among black voters -- and until the South Carolina primary, African-American voters don't comprise any significant bloc of votes. The theory is that no matter what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, black voters are going to go to bat for Biden. So he's not going to bet the farm on Iowa or New Hampshire.
Biden said as much in a swing through South Carolina last week: "I hope that whatever Iowa would bring, what we've done here would strengthen the prospect that we can continue to win here."
That make sense -- in theory. But in reality, if Biden loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he is almost certainly cooked. Imagine if, say, California Sen. Kamala Harris won the Iowa caucuses and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren won in New Hampshire. Would black voters stick by Biden -- if someone else suddenly looked like a potential nominee? What about if Warren sweeps both early states? Is there ANY chance that Biden stops her in South Carolina? Hard to see.
Biden enjoys lots of advantages for being the frontrunner in this race. Money, polls, debate placement, media attention. But being the frontrunner is not without drawbacks -- one of which is you don't get to make excuses if and when you lose.
The Point: Biden might be able to survive a split decision in Iowa and New Hampshire -- a win and a top three finish, for example. Losing Iowa and New Hampshire, however, almost certainly spells G-A-M-E O-V-E-R.
-- Chris | | "The details are irrelevant in terms of decision-making."
-- Joe Biden, saying his verbal slip-ups have nothing to do with his ability to serve as president. | | | ✨ THE POINT'S 100TH YOUTUBE EPISODE! ✨ | |  | There IS crying in politics | | In the 100th episode(!) of The Point on YouTube, Chris analyzes some of the most famous tears from politicians through history and makes the argument for more emotions in Washington.
Don't cry because it's over! Subscribe for more episodes of The Point. | | | Chris is a BIG Pinegrove fan. (You must listen to "Old Friends.") Their new one is called "Moment." | | HISTORY LONG IN THE MAKING | | The Cherokee nation now has its first representative in Congress -- an achievement centuries in the making.
Kimberly Teehee, the executive director of government relations for the Cherokee Nation, was approved by the Council of the Cherokee Nation as a delegate to the US House of Representatives, fulfilling a promise made to the tribe in a nearly 200-year-old treaty with the federal government.
The treaty doesn't specify if Teehee would be a voting member of the legislature, and her appointment requires congressional approval.
Her role may be similar to those who represent Washington, DC, and five US territories, who can't vote on the House floor but can introduce legislation, vote in their respective committees and debate on the floor. | |
LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | Cory Booker: Released a $3 trillion climate crisis plan promising to spend on clean energy, phase out the use of fossil fuels and create a 100% carbon neutral economy in the US.
Julián Castro: Also released a plan to tackle the climate crisis, which would "direct $10 trillion in federal, state, local, and private investments" over the next 10 years. | | | 181 miles
Pence also happens to have family connections to the tiny Irish village, surrounded by windswept Atlantic coastline and bogland. His great-grandmother was from there, and a distant cousin still owns Morrissey's Pub in town. Chris has more on the real reason Pence is staying at his boss' hotel. | | | | | | |
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