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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

The Point: How partisanship won in Alabama

December 12, 2017  by Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy

How partisanship won in Alabama

Polls don't close in Alabama until 8 p.m. ET. And we won't likely know whether Republican Roy Moore or Democrat Doug Jones won for a while after that.

But there's already one clear victor in the Alabama Senate race: partisanship.

According to exit polling in the race, 49% of voters said they believed the allegations about sexual harassment and misconduct by Moore were probably or definitely true. Another 45% said those same allegations were probably or definitely false.

Here's the truly depressing part: 9 out of 10 people who said they voted for Moore believed that the allegations were false while 9 in 10 people who voted for Doug Jones said they believed the allegations were true.

That's remarkable. Partisanship determined which reality voters in Alabama chose to believe.

People backing Moore saw him as the victim of a media conspiracy that the women making the allegations were somehow complicit in. (No evidence has come to light that the women knew each other or that they colluded in any way regarding their decisions to come forward.)

People who voted for Jones believed wholeheartedly in Moore's guilt on these charges, despite the fact that he has denied all of them and said he has never met any of these women.

Two alternate worlds. Same state. No agreement on facts or even on a neutral arbiter who could help separate fact from fiction.

The Point: This is the new reality in our politics, a reality ushered in by Trump's 2016 victory. Facts are fungible -- and subject to the partisan lens through which you see the world. No matter which lens that is, a world without agreed-upon facts should terrify you.

RIDING INTO THE SPECIAL ELECTION LIKE...

You can thank CNN's Brenna WIlliams for bringing this GIF to the world. Seen here: Roy Moore arriving on horseback to vote this morning. Follow along with our live Alabama Senate election coverage here.

ALABAMA SPECIAL ELECTION: REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK

As we continue to wait for results, CNN's Eric Bradner is doing some great on-the-ground reporting in Alabama. Here's his dispatch for The Point:

From Montgomery, it's hard to tell what's happening. Both sides say they feel good about what they're seeing -- and at this point on election day, there are anecdotal examples of high turnout in key areas that Moore and Jones can both point to. 

Some strategists say the digital data offers more good signs for Jones, and the early exit polling showing African-Americans making up 30% of the electorate is certainly good news for his campaign, which knew it needed black voters to constitute at least 27 or 28% for Jones to have a chance. But none of the strategists I've spoken to today are confident that they know this race's outcome. 

Making all of this harder: Alabama never has competitive national races. The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat here was a generation ago -- 1992, when Sen. Richard Shelby won. And then he switched parties! 

HOW A DEM COULD WIN IN ALABAMA

CNN's Ryan Struyk and Sam Petulla looked at the last time a Democrat won a major election in Alabama. They write:

But while the state is deep red today, Democrats have won before in Alabama, and a look at Trump's win, Moore's almost-loss and the 2006 lieutenant governor's race could give a road map to how it might happen again.

The last time a Democrat won a major statewide election in Alabama was in 2006, when Jim Folsom Jr., a former Alabama governor, won the lieutenant governorship after more than a decade out of politics. He won the seat against none other than Luther Strange, the Trump-backed incumbent who lost the primary to Moore this fall. 

The first place to watch is the "Black Belt" across the middle of the state, named for the black soil in that strip of land and known for its heavily African-American population. The other notable county to watch for Democrats is Jefferson County, home to the state's largest city of Birmingham and the highest share of the vote in the race. 


Read more in Ryan and Sam's full story here.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

This video from the folks at Reckon Alabama does a good job of breaking down where to look in Alabama tonight.

The comprehensive case against Roy Moore via National Review's David French

Politico's Steven Shepard details a poll that built a university

The education of Ivanka by CNN's Sara Murray and Betsy Klein

Merriam-Webster's word of the year is "feminism."

A positive story about millennials!

You are very smart. And good looking. And funny.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

"Electioneering" by Radiohead. 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Only if your mind is in the gutter would you have read it that way."
-White House press secretary Sarah Sanders, on those who thought President Trump was suggesting something salacious by saying Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand "would do anything" for campaign contributions (see below)

'LIGHTWEIGHT'

Many people -- including several Democratic senators -- expressed outrage toward the President for tweeting that Sen. Gillibrand is a "lightweight." He also called her a "flunky" and "used."

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren fired back at Trump by tweeting: "Are you really trying to bully, intimidate and slut-shame @SenGillibrand? Do you know who you're picking a fight with? Good luck with that, @realDonaldTrump. Nevertheless, #shepersisted." Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley also defended Gillibrand: "@realDonaldTrump, your insecurity is showing," he said in a tweet. "@SenGillibrand, you are a powerful voice; these petty attacks are a badge of honor."

Gillibrand responded on-camera to Trump's tweet during an event on Capitol Hill this morning, which aired on MSNBC. Gillibrand called the tweet a "sexist smear." 

"It's part of the President's efforts of name calling and it's not going to silence me," she said.

Read Chris' take on Trump's tweet here.

HANDFUL OF LAWMAKERS TO TRUMP: RESIGN

CNN's Jenny Hansler outlined a list of the senators calling on President Trump tor resign over sexual misconduct allegations. At least 15 women have come forward with a wide range of accusations against Trump. Of the women, 13 say Trump attacked them directly and two others say they witnessed behavior that made them uncomfortable. All the alleged incidents took place prior to Trump's assuming the presidency. Trump has denied the allegations (as has the White House). Here's list of those calling on Trump to resign:
  • Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-New York
  • Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Oregon
  • Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon
  • Sen. Cory Booker, D-New Jersey
In addition to these senators, a group of Democratic congresswomen is calling on the House Oversight Committee to investigate allegations of sexual misconduct against Trump, CNN's MJ Lee reported. In a letter to the panel's chairman, GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy, and the committee's top Democrat, Rep. Elijah Cummings, 59 female House lawmakers signed on to a letter that said that "the American people deserve a full inquiry in to the truth of these allegations."

RIP MAYOR LEE

San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee died unexpectedly on Tuesday morning, which prompted condolences from former colleagues and fellow politicians.  

Lee, who became the first Asian-American to serve in the city's top post, had a heart attack while shopping at Safeway, according to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. 

Pelosi called the news "heartbreaking." She described him as "so wonderful" and a "man of the people" during an off-camera conversation with CNN producer Deirdre Walsh. Lee, 65, was a former civil rights attorney. He had been mayor since 2011.

Read more in CNN's Maegan Vazquez, Jason Hanna and Stella Chan's full story here.

GIFMAS: DAY 5

H/T Brenna (duh!)
From Brenna: On the fifth day of GIFmas, 2017 gave to me … this most amazing exit by Chuck Grassley. It even rhymed today! Awesome. 

Think back to a meeting that you just wanted to peace out from (aka every meeting) and the elaborate lengths you were willing to go to in order to escape. Sen. Chuck Grassley lived your dream in this moment from October. 

Grassley, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, wiggled between the back door of a press briefing and a row of American flags in order to avoid answering questions on the indictment of former Trump aide Paul Manafort. Sen. Orrin Hatch looks just as bemused as the rest of us were in that moment. A lot of confusing things happen behind me at work too, Sen. Hatch. Months later, every moment of this GIF is still a winner. 

Anyway, happy Special Election Day! Remember to tell everyone you know to subscribe to The Point. And keep following along with our election coverage here.
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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