| | | | This looks like Joe Biden's race to lose now |  | | Joe Biden has been officially running for president for less than a month. But in that short time, he has gone from nominal front-runner of a closely crowded pack of top-tier candidates to the clear frontrunner to be the party's 2020 nominee against Donald Trump.
Polling tells the story. Biden released a video on April 25 announcing he was running. Two days later, the Real Clear Politics average of national polling on the 2020 Democratic primary put Biden at 29% to 23% for Bernie Sanders, 8% for Kamala Harris and 7.5% for Pete Buttigieg.
Today's RCP polling average puts Biden at 39% to Sanders' 16%. No other candidate has double-digit support. The trend line on Biden is where it should be (although he has dipped somewhat from his average of 41% last week). While all candidates get some boost from the flush of media attention that comes from an official entry into the race, Biden's has been both a) bigger and b) longer than almost anyone expected.
What that surge has done is turn the race into Biden in a tier by himself and then a gaggle of candidates -- Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren -- on a second tier well below the former VP.
Biden and his team are doing everything they can to drive that perception, releasing presidential-looking daily schedules and having his events covered by a pool reporter. Biden, too, is limiting his public appearances to keep the chances of making a race-altering gaffe as low as possible.
The early returns are very, very good. But presidential primaries almost always tighten when the actual votes begin to near. And with a field this large -- 23 candidates as of the end of this week! -- the chances of Biden running away with it aren't great. (It's also not impossible to imagine, however.)
The Point: Biden has changed the race in just three weeks. Now the onus will be on his many challengers to force a new dynamic on the contest before they run out of time.
-- Chris
Below, the week in 25 headlines.
Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: | | "Look, it's not like I killed (Osama) bin Laden, right?"
-- Pete Buttigieg saying that he did not want to overstate his role in the military,
but "it certainly is something that was dangerous." | | | Donald Trump may have plans for a brand-new Fourth of July celebration in Washington this summer, but DC Mayor Muriel Bowser is seeking to put the kibosh on the bash.
In January, ever-the-minimalist (jk) Trump tweeted this new Independence Day event would be "one of the biggest gatherings in the history of Washington, D.C." and that there would be "major fireworks display, entertainment and an address by your favorite President, me!"
While Trump released logistics last week to make the Fourth of July celebration bigger than ever, local officials are concerned the normally non-partisan celebration will become a political rally.
Most of Bowser's issues are logistical -- fear that the increased security presence with the President's attendance could strain local law enforcement and hamper the experience of the many tourists who visit DC during the Fourth of July celebrations. | | Steve Mnuchin defies House Democrats' subpoena for Trump's tax returns
Inside the fight between Donald Trump and John Bolton over Iran
A former Onion writer apologizes on Joe Biden
We are in a surfing golden age. But it comes at a cost, as Rick Maese explains.
A great story by Nathaniel Meyersohn on the rise of Aldi
What if Jaime Lannister isn't dead?
Taco Bell, FTW | | | The FULL new album by The National is out! It's called "I Am Easy to Find". | |
LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL SCHEDULER | | | Coming next week: Both Bill de Blasio and Steve Bullock make their presidential campaign trail debuts in Iowa, Beto O'Rourke gets his CNN Town Hall and Donald Trump and Joe Biden hold dueling Pennsylvania rallies.
Friday, May 17 - Bill de Blasio: Debuts on the campaign trail with a stop in Iowa alongside former Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack
- Julián Castro: Is holding a town hall in California's Bay Area, alongside Santa Clara University students, faculty, and employees from Silicon Valley Leadership Group member companies
- Steve Bullock: Participates in his second of three days in Iowa alongside Attorney General Tom Miller, who has already endorsed Bullock
- Elizabeth Warren: Is the keynote speaker at New Hampshire's Rockingham County Democratic Committee's annual clambake
- Bernie Sanders: Rallies in Asheville and Charlotte, North Carolina, on the beginning of a Southern state swing
Saturday, May 18 - Joe Biden: Holds a major campaign rally in Philadelphia, home to his campaign's newly announced HQ
- Amy Klobuchar: Delivers the keynote address at the Democratic Women's Caucus Legacy Luncheon in Detroit
- Bill de Blasio: Continues his campaign swing with a two-day stop in South Carolina
- Elizabeth Warren: Holds a town hall in Nashua, New Hampshire
- Bernie Sanders: Holds town halls in Orangeburg and Denmark, South Carolina, and a rally in Augusta, Georgia
Sunday, May 19 Monday, May 20 Tuesday, May 21 - Beto O'Rourke: Gets the CNN Town Hall treatment from Des Moines, Iowa
- John Delaney: Tours nine counties of flood-damaged western Iowa over three days
Thursday, May 23 - Cory Booker: Participates in an MSNBC town hall from Iowa, kicking off a five-day swing in the Hawkeye State
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