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Monday, September 16, 2019

A Turn Toward War With Iran?

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good
 
Sept. 16, 2019

A Turn Toward War With Iran?

Now that the attacks on Saudi oil facilities have prompted new talk of war with Iran, David Frum writes in The Atlantic that Americans should consider several questions—from whether to trust the Trump administration and the Saudi government when they blame Iran for the attacks, to whether the Trump administration could prosecute any war effectively, to what striking Iran would achieve.

The Atlantic Council's Barbara Slavin points out the sharp turn in US-Iran relations, as a high-level summit had appeared likely, while Seth J. Frantzman notes at The National Interest the attacks were surprisingly easy to carry out, signaling a new threat. The Financial Times' Gideon Rachman offers good news and bad: Oil markets are less vulnerable to shocks than they once were, he writes, but the actors in this drama (President Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Iran's leaders) are "headstrong and prone to taking risks."

Israel's New Kingmaker?

With Israelis set to vote tomorrow, Mehul Srivastava writes in the Financial Times that the country's political future could hinge on Avigdor Lieberman, the right-wing secularist hoping to split Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conservative support. Riding two powerful currents—security concerns and secularism—Lieberman (along with his party, Yisrael Beiteinu) is positioned as a kingmaker in Israeli politics for years to come, Srivastava writes.

Writing for CNN, Guy Ziv and Benjamin L. Shaver point out that Netanyahu's centrist opponents have been silent in the face of his promises to annex parts of the West Bank—a sign that politics have shifted away from a two-state solution.

What the Amazon Means for Global Politics

Fires in the Amazon have encapsulated a change in global politics, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass writes in a Project Syndicate op-ed. The idea of state sovereignty is widely shared, Haass writes, but it's "an increasingly inadequate, if not obsolete, notion in today's globalized world, where just about anyone and anything can reach almost anywhere." Brazil may believe that actions within its borders are its own business—but Haass argues that's simply not the case, as allowing the Amazon to burn can affect global warming, which is everyone's concern.

Will Russia Come Around on Global Warming?

Global warming remains a low priority in Russia's politics, The Economist writes, chronicling climate ambivalence by the world's fourth-largest greenhouse-gas emitter and second-largest producer of oil and gas. Russian agriculture, Arctic shipping lanes, and access to natural resources could improve as the earth gets warmer, but the magazine notes that politics could be changing, as Russia is starting to see "climate-change-connected calamities," and as business have shown support for action. Then again, even if Russia goes green, it probably will do so a bit differently, The Economist predicts, with nuclear power playing a bigger role.

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