| | | | Can Donald Trump change the electoral map, again? |  | | Donald Trump is in New Mexico tonight for a campaign rally, the latest sign his 2020 reelection team believes he can carry the Land of Enchantment in 2020.
Which would seem very unlikely given that a) he lost New Mexico by 8 points to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and b) Democrats control the state's governorship, both its Senate seats and its entire House delegation.
At the same time, Trump broke longtime Democratic strangleholds on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016 -- expanding the electoral map in ways that looked, candidly, unlikely even a month or so before that election.
That recent history suggests that dismissing the Trump campaign's plan to grow the 2020 map into New Mexico (as well as New Hampshire and Nevada, where Clinton won in 2016) is a mistake. Especially when you consider that just that sort of map expansion may well be necessary if Trump wants to get reelected.
Polling in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin shows Trump's job approval stuck in the low 40s -- a very tough place from which to begin a campaign to re-create his winning coalition in those states. If Trump does lose Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes, say, then he has to make them up somewhere else.
Which is where the Trump campaign focus on growing the map into New Mexico comes in. (Yes, New Mexico has only 5 electoral votes -- but every little bit helps.) That Trump narrowed the margin in New Mexico from the 10 Mitt Romney lost the state by in 2012 and the 15 points John McCain lost it by in 2008 is likely spurring optimism in the President's campaign. The belief in the Trump campaign, as articulated by campaign manager Brad Parscale, is that the President has a winning message focused on the economy for Hispanic voters. (Nearly half of New Mexico's population is Hispanic.)
There's scant polling evidence to suggest that Trump has an opening with Hispanic voters. In a September CNN-SSRS poll, two-thirds of Latino voters disapproved of the job the President was doing.
The Point: There's no debate that Trump almost certainly needs to expand the electoral map to win a second term. It's far less clear whether he can actually pull it off again.
-- Chris | | "Personally, I think the President ought to be impeached."
-- House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler doing his part to clarify the confusion over whether his committee is moving forward on impeaching President Trump. | | | In its mission to protect President Donald Trump and his family, the Secret Service has requested to buy two Jet Skis (and a trailer).
The Jet Skis will come in handy to protect the Trumps at waterfront properties including Mar-a-Lago and in the Hamptons. The requested Jet Skis can retail for around $10,000 for a 4-stroke, 4-cylinder 1498cc watercraft that can carry a maximum of 900 pounds.
They will be stored at the Secret Service's training center in Maryland. | | | A live version of REM's "Welcome to the Occupation" from Chicago 1995? Yes, please! | | Must-watch TV? Sean Spicer makes his "Dancing with the Stars" debut tonight.
The former White House press secretary is not the first ex-Trump administration official to grace reality television (remember Omarosa's "Celebrity Big Brother" stint?).
Let's hope Spicer fares better than Energy Secretary Rick Perry, who competed in 2016 and was only the second contestant eliminated. | |
LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | Bernie Sanders: Is off the campaign trail for two days to let his voice heal. He strained it last Monday during a rally.
Amy Klobuchar: Takes a tour of the "Blue Wall," as her campaign put it, campaigning in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin over the coming week.
Joe Biden: Nabbed the endorsement of a congressman from Texas, who switched from supporting Julián Castro.
Elizabeth Warren: Delivers a major campaign rally from New York City's Washington Square Park tonight. She's planning to talk about corruption -- and Lauren will be there. Follow her on Twitter for more from the ground.
Donald Trump: Holds a campaign rally in New Mexico tonight. | | | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment